Publications

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Aidan_Horn

Forthcoming

The SALDRU Temporary Employee/Employer Relief Scheme (TERS) series (still to be approved)

by Mr Aidan Horn and Prof Andrew Donaldson. Please read the papers in the following order:

  1. Horn, AJ. 2021. South Africa's Unemployment Insurance Fund Benefit Function: A Mathematical Critique. (SALDRU Working Paper #).

This paper highlights the unnecessary complexity of South Africa's Unemployment Insurance Fund (UIF) benefit function, known as the Income Replacement Rate (IRR), and the disadvantageous manner in which the IRR is low for most earners. Possible alternative formulae are described, along with the implications for total expenditure on the UIF. The paper recommends simpler (and more optimal) formulae.
  1. UIF formula policy brief (Aidan sole author)

  2. Labour market statistics (Donaldson & Horn, 2021)

  3. TERS outcomes, and earnings and employment forecasting (Aidan sole author, so far)

  4. TERS policy brief (Donaldson sole author)

  5. Update briefs each quarter (three pages each), to evaluate how well my macroeconomic modelling forecasted the economic recovery in the labour market.

This web page will still be edited, with links to my GitHub repository version release, (social) media announcements, OpenSALDRU working paper links, and abstracts. The first five papers are due to be published in Jan–Mar 2021.


Working papers


Dissertations and essays

Masters

Horn, AJ. 2020. Teacher Remuneration in South Africa: Incentivizing Performance. (Forthcoming).

Despite high government expenditure, education in South Africa is poor quality. We focus on how teacher quality can be improved by improving the structure of their remuneration. Performance-related pay, which can be based either on measuring learner test scores, or by measuring teacher content knowledge or pedagogical skills, has sometimes been successful in countries with low levels of teacher effort, and may be applicable in South Africa. However, measures to enhance accountability or reward performance need to take into account resistance by teacher unions. We situate the discussion in the context of South Africa’s existing framework for teacher remuneration under the Occupation Specific Dispensation. From this, we criticize the relatively flat progression of salaries as teachers’ experience increases, which discourages skilled teachers from remaining in the profession. We propose that performance-based pay be integrated into the existing salary structure through bonus salary notch progressions, thereby also increasing the slope of salary progression.

Honours

Horn, AJ. 2018. Wage Subsidies in South Africa: Context and Future Directions. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.14064.89608

This paper explores the feasibility for utilizing a wage subsidy in South Africa. Whilst a wage subsidy is already in place in South Africa, it is fairly unsubstantial, and this paper investigates the prospect of expanding it. Design characteristics of wage subsidies are discussed, in the context of South Africa. The paper shows how a wage subsidy is currently being used in South Africa (the Employment Tax Incentive) and ventures to show how a wage subsidy can be constructed in future. The finding is that wage subsidies currently do little to reduce unemployment, especially with the low levels of subsidization such as what currently occurs in South Africa, but that subsidies would need to be considerably extended in order for there to be a determinable impact on unemployment. Some suggestions are made about targeting subsidies towards employment-intensive industries, and towards small firms.

Undergraduate essays

ResearchGate and Academia.edu

Current research interests

PhD

Starting 2021. Occupations in South Africa. Chapters:

  1. Occupation data in PALMS, and other labour market datasets.
    Occupational trends over time, and future trends. SAMs?
    Spin-off: SALDRU Occupational Earnings Comparison Tool web applet

  2. Task-based occupational analysis (including an international literature review).

Future

Inflation; informal sector.